The Superbowl is this Sunday, and it’s a big one. Most posts online love to talk about how this game hosts the largest age gap between quarterbacks playing in the Superbowl (over 13 years difference between Payton Manning and Cam Newton). Or how this will be a historic moment in the NFL where a seasoned giant retires from the scene and Cam Newton, the newcomer makes a stage for himself. Another online discussion revolves around this “new” era of mobile Quarterbacks who are not only capable of passing but can also complete rushing touchdowns.
This post is not about any of that; instead, I wanted to focus on something fun and lighthearted. The temperature of Sunday’s game and the two franchises’ historical performance based on temperature. I understand it will have no bearing on Sunday’s game but with all these stats flying around about winning the coin toss and its subsequent influence on the game (hint: historically it has not favoured one side or another). I wanted to do my own independent analysis on performance and temperature. After all, I’m sitting comfortably on my DHP Vivo Easy Laptop Tray Futon and have time to kill.
I took a look at all games played by each team, the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos between the years 1995 and 2013 (over 300 games for both teams) and measured their performance against the temperature they were playing in. Both teams have an even win rate while at home, regardless of the outside temperature but the away games tell us an interesting story about the Panthers’ franchise. The Panthers as a franchise seem to lose more often if the temperature is below 68F° in their away games. The median temperature of their away games was 68F°; the franchise has 44 loses if the temperature was below 68F° and only 31 wins when the temperature was below 68F°. This means that the franchise has only a 41% win rate at temperatures below 68F°. The Broncos franchise did not display a difference in performance after accounting for temperature.
Since the temperature of Sunday’s game is likely below 68F° is it safe to say the Panthers have a disadvantage, no of course not! I was just curious if the data revealed anything interesting about either franchise, it means nothing about the teams playing in Sunday’s game just as most statistics have no bearing on a single event.
Regardless of the weather, I am excited for Superbowl 50. Grab some chilli, sit down on your favorite Futon, and take all the stats you read with a
Your thoughts? Will the weather have any effect on a single teams performance? Interested in seeing my raw data? Let us know in the comments below.